We are living in a period in which we face not merely isolated anomalies, but a phenomenon known as a polycrisis. This state arises when several different structural threats, from climate change and technological upheaval to the breakdown of supply chains, overlap, reinforce one another and create a destructive force far greater than if they had struck separately. The following areas of concern are only a fraction of an extensive list of risks from which people consciously choose to look away. It is not a lack of data, but a deliberate suppression of facts, because accepting reality would require an immediate and painful change in our way of life.
A disruption or drastic restriction of oil supplies as a result of geopolitical conflicts, such as the one in Iran, need not by any means be a permanent state. Nothing lasts forever. This outage, however, may last an extremely long time, and the situation on the markets may deteriorate even more dramatically. It is a fundamental pressure that will rewrite pricing across all sectors over the long term. The market's reaction is nevertheless alarmingly apathetic. Instead of immediately reducing energy intensity, we continue in massive inertia and rely on the naive notion that markets will eventually generate a painless solution.
The massive redirection of budgets into the military industry is a natural response to immediate security threats. In the short term, it may even appear to have a positive effect on the economy: the arms sector grows, new jobs are created and GDP is artificially stimulated. In the longer term, however, it is an absolute killer for the economy. Capital poured into weapons and ammunition is dead from a growth perspective. These billions do not innovate the civilian sector, do not increase labour productivity and generate no further added value for society. They will remain tied up in equipment while key infrastructure, science and healthcare bleed from a lack of resources.
Demographic decline is relentless mathematics. The model of today's state was built on the assumption of a continuously growing working population. When the ratio between those who contribute to the system and those who draw from it definitively breaks, states will lose the ability to finance their own operation. Political elites, however, continue to plan budgets as if this model were sustainable indefinitely, thereby only deepening the future fall.
We genuinely reflect on these variables in depth and adjust our steps so that we are as prepared and resilient as possible. The economic and geopolitical environment is changing very rapidly today. Holding on to old expectations is a guaranteed path to failure. That is also why we build our approach on solid pillars that help us build a resilient business.
In shaping our strategy and investment approach, we rely on these key principles:
Ignoring the approaching reality will not stop the problems; it will only maximise the price we will pay in the future for failing to address them. True resilience begins precisely where naivety ends, where the acceptance of facts begins and systematic preparedness takes over.