Financing real estate doesn't just mean buying a finished property. We've helped clients in a...
In the investment world, an old rule applies: "When even taxi drivers are talking about buying stocks (or in this case, apartments), pay close attention." Dubai is currently in a paradoxical situation. While social media and developers' marketing brochures glow with optimism, hard data from analysts and international agencies are starting to sound the alarm.
At BizPartner Group, we predicted this situation two years ago. Today, our assumptions are being fulfilled. Let’s look at what is actually happening in the "City of Gold" and why this state of affairs represents our greatest opportunity in years.
The Battle of Narratives: Brokers vs. Analysts
An information war is currently underway in Dubai. On one side stand real estate agents and developers who speak almost exclusively of growth, because they need it. On the other side are renowned institutions such as S&P Global Ratings, Knight Frank, and Deloitte, which are indicating an approaching correction (a so-called property downturn).
Why do brokers push "Off-plan" (buying off paper)?
You may have noticed that brokers almost exclusively offer you new projects that will be completed in 3 to 5 years. The reason is prosaic and can be found in their commissions:
- Commission from off-plan sales: Often up to 6% of the property price (paid by the developer).
- Commission from the secondary market (existing apartments): Standardly only 2%.
While the broker convinces you of the advantages of a new build, the market says otherwise. The gap between the price you pay the developer as a first-time buyer and the price at which the property actually sells on the secondary market (resale) is constantly widening. Today, the resale price is often 20% lower than the purchase price from the developer. This is a clear signal that end-user demand is weakening at the expense of pure speculators.
The Numbers Don't Lie: 2025 as a Historical Extreme
The Dubai market is growing at a pace that is unprecedented in history. Here are the statistics:
- Massive Supply: In 2025, a record of nearly 150,000 off-plan units were sold. Considering that there are currently approximately 800,000 existing residential units in Dubai, the volume of newly sold (but not yet existing) apartments represents nearly 19% of the city's total stock in just a single year.
- Construction vs. Reality: In total, more than 50% of units compared to existing units are currently sold under construction.
- The Speculator Trap: A huge number of investors buy off-plan only due to the low "down payment" (often only 10–20%) with the aim of "flipping" the property (selling for a profit) even before completion. However, when these speculators realize they cannot sell at a profit upon completion, they will start panically pushing prices down to avoid further installments.
The Immigration Paradox and Construction Workers
Developers argue that demand will be absorbed by new immigration. Dubai did indeed attract more than 200,000 new residents in 2025. However, there is a catch in the demographics.
According to data from the Dubai Statistics Center, the city has approximately 4 million inhabitants. However, it is estimated that up to 1.5 million of them are construction workers living in labor camps. There are currently approximately 450,000 residential units under construction. As soon as the construction boom cools down, these people will leave the city. With them, the "paper" population growth will disappear, but thousands of luxury apartments will remain empty.
How to Avoid the Trap: Strategic Recommendations from BizPartner Group
If you are considering Dubai, we recommend changing your perspective:
- Beware of the "off-plan premium" and the marketing trap: Currently, buyers on the primary market (directly from the developer) often pay a price 15 to 20% higher than what comparable properties actually sell for on the secondary market. This "novelty surcharge" is driven by aggressive marketing and promises of appreciation that clash with hard reality: a massive wave of new apartment deliveries in 2026. If you buy a property today for more than its current resale market value, you start the investment in a deep deficit that even future market growth may not erase.
- Focus on the secondary market: Existing properties are cheaper, immediately available, and generate rental cash flow right away.
- Look for "distressed sales": Monitor offers under pressure, where a speculator cannot manage the payment schedule or needs to get rid of the property quickly.
- Strategic location instead of fleeting hype: Prioritize established locations with long-term high demand that have direct connections to key transport arteries (such as Sheikh Zayed Road) and public transport hubs. Invest where the property is part of a functional whole with existing schools, hospitals, and business centers. It is these "legacy" areas that will maintain high liquidity and price stability even when demand for isolated projects in development zones might fall.
A Lesson in Investment Geography: Why Neighbors are More Important than Marble
In the world, we find many ambitious projects—from abandoned artificial islands in Southeast Asia to entire ghost cities in China—that unsuccessfully tried to copy the "Dubai model" and today stand empty. Dubai has long been past this risk; it has transformed into a fully functional metropolis. However, this does not mean that every address in the emirate is a winner. There are still entire neighborhoods that could become investment-wise "stuck" for many years.
Therefore, when choosing a project, location must be the uncompromising criterion number one. At BizPartner Group, we stick to a proven rule: It is always better to buy a weaker property in a premium location than a luxury apartment in a bad area. The market value of your investment will always be defined by the level of the surroundings and the quality of your neighbors. If you buy a palace in a neighborhood that no one is interested in, the neighbors will drag your price down. If, however, you buy an average apartment in a top location, the prestige of the address will pull your price up.
Dubai with a Clear Vision and the Right Strategy
We perceive Dubai as an extremely dynamic emirate with an ambitious vision that goes beyond the framework of ordinary market cycles. Its ongoing transformation into a full-fledged global city, focused on real life, quality infrastructure, and a functional economy, creates a solid foundation for long-term stability. It is precisely in this phase of market maturation that the most interesting investment horizons open up for investors with a correctly set strategy—horizons that are no longer built on speculation, but on real value.
What this means for us as BizPartner Group:
From our perspective, we are facing a period that is a "win-win" situation for us. If the Dubai market continues to grow, our existing investments and trades will continue to prosper and generate returns. However, if the predictions of a market cooling are fulfilled, the largest business opportunity in the history of our group opens up for us.
When the market is flooded with optimism and prices are constantly rising, banks lend to everyone and the space for exceptional appreciation narrows. The real game, however, begins at the moment of correction. An environment where traditional bank financing hits its limits, demand falls, and the market seeks liquidity is the best for us. Alternative and distressed financing is a discipline we grew up on, in which we profiled ourselves, and for which we have been strategically preparing since our first steps in Dubai.
At a time when traditional financial institutions begin to be cautious, we come with solutions that the market inevitably needs. We are ready to utilize this dynamics for the benefit of our group, our clients, and our investors, regardless of which direction the market takes in the coming months.
